At 31 March 2026, 34 of the 189 projects in the UK Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) were rated red, or 18%. That is three more red-rated projects than a year earlier, according to the NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26 published on gov.uk on 13 July 2026.
The rest of the portfolio at the same date: 109 projects rated amber (58%), 29 rated green (15%) and 17 exempt from publication (9%). Tollgate Data's UK GMPP dataset counts only rated projects, so it shows red as 20% of the 172 projects rated at March 2026. Both figures describe the same projects with a different denominator.
What red, amber and green mean in the GMPP
Each GMPP project carries a delivery confidence assessment (DCA). Gov.uk defines it as an assessment of the likelihood of a project delivering its objectives to time and cost.
The senior responsible owner (SRO) of each project provides an updated rating every quarter, and the annual report uses the Quarter 4 rating. Where a project has had active NISTA support or independent assurance in the past six months, NISTA publishes its own independent rating in place of the SRO's.
Gov.uk is explicit that a red rating does not mean failure. It signals that significant issues need urgent attention, and it triggers deeper support from NISTA. Projects are often rated red early in their lifecycle, when scope, costs and delivery methods are still being worked out. Amber means delivery appears feasible but significant issues exist and need management attention.
How confidence moved between 2025 and 2026
Ratings change from year to year, and the direction matters more than any single snapshot. Tollgate Data compares the 149 projects that carried a rating in both March 2025 and March 2026.
- Confidence moved on 47 of those 149 projects.
- 30 of the 149 projects improved their rating.
- 17 of the 149 projects worsened.
- 102 of the 149 projects held the same rating.
The dataset also tracks how long projects take to reach the two worst ratings, Red or Amber/Red. Across all snapshots, the 59 projects that were downgraded took a median 24 months from their first rating to get there. Another 95 projects were already at Amber/Red or worse in their first report, so they are not counted as downgrades.
A smaller portfolio from April 2026
The 2025-26 report is the last on the old basis. From 1 April 2026, the reformed GMPP covers approximately 80 of the most complex and strategically significant projects, with other major projects managed through departmental portfolios. Counts in future reports will not compare directly with the 189-project portfolio described here.
Method and sources
Headline counts come from the gov.uk NISTA Major Projects Annual Report 2025-26, which reflects the portfolio as it stood on 31 March 2026. Movement and downgrade figures come from Tollgate Data's UK GMPP dataset, which holds 1,581 project rows across 14 published snapshots from September 2012 to March 2026.
The dataset carries ratings in the source's own words without re-grading them, which is why older snapshots show five levels (including Amber/Red and Amber/Green) and recent ones show three. The source data is published under the Open Government Licence v3, and Tollgate's derived data is published under CC BY 4.0. Every figure on the dataset page links to the rows behind it.
Frequently asked questions
How many UK GMPP projects are rated red in 2026?
At 31 March 2026, 34 of the 189 GMPP projects were rated red (18%), three more than the year before. Counting only the 172 rated projects, red is 20%.
What does GMPP stand for?
GMPP stands for the Government Major Projects Portfolio, the UK government's list of its largest and most complex projects. NISTA, part of the Cabinet Office, publishes an annual report on it.
Does a red rating mean a project has failed?
Gov.uk says a red rating does not mean failure. Red signals significant issues that need urgent attention, and often reflects a project's scale, complexity or early stage.
Tollgate brings gate ratings and delivery confidence into Jira projects for organisations that run their own portfolios. To see every number in this article and the rows behind it, explore the GMPP dataset.
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